The Charlotte housing market continues to send mixed signals.

On one hand, the average sales price of a single-family home in Mecklenburg County reached a new all-time high in June, climbing to $762,965, up 5% from a year ago. On the other hand, the median sales price slipped 1% to $529,950, suggesting that not all segments of the market are moving in the same direction.

Why the disconnect?

One likely explanation is the changing mix of homes and buyers in today’s market. Industry data continues to show that the average age of both buyers and sellers is rising. Older buyers often bring more equity, larger down payments, and stronger financial resources to the table. As a result, we’re seeing a greater share of higher-end homes represented in closed sales, pulling the average price upward even as the middle of the market remains under pressure.

Affordability remains the biggest challenge.

Mortgage rates have climbed back to approximately 6.55%, slightly below where they were a year ago but higher than earlier this spring. When those rates are combined with today’s record-high prices, the result is an all-time high monthly payment for the average home purchase.

That reality is creating headwinds for first-time buyers and many middle-income households. For buyers trying to enter the market, it’s not just the home price that matters. It’s the monthly payment. And today’s payment calculations are stretching budgets further than ever.

Those affordability pressures are beginning to show up in inventory levels.

The number of homes available for sale in June was 18% higher than the same time last year, pushing overall supply to 3.17 months. While that still qualifies as a seller’s market by historical standards, buyers have noticeably more options than they did a year ago.

More inventory generally leads to slower price appreciation because buyers gain negotiating power and have less urgency to make immediate decisions. We’re also seeing this reflected in longer days on market and softer showing activity across many price ranges.

Some of that slowdown is seasonal. Summer vacations and family travel often distract buyers and sellers from real estate decisions. But higher prices and elevated mortgage rates are likely contributing factors as well.

Looking ahead, the next two months will be particularly important.

Historically, home prices tend to peak during the late spring and early summer before gradually softening through the fall and winter months. As July and August sales data become available, we’ll get a clearer picture of whether Mecklenburg County is following its typical seasonal pattern or establishing a new trend.

For buyers, this may present an opportunity. While many are waiting for lower interest rates, there is little evidence today that significant rate cuts are imminent. If rates remain elevated and long-term housing demand continues to outpace supply, a seasonal slowdown later this year could provide a better entry point before prices move higher again.

The market isn’t crashing, and it’s certainly not booming the way it did a few years ago. Instead, we’re seeing a market that is gradually rebalancing, with strong demand at some price points, affordability challenges at others, and more choices becoming available for buyers willing to navigate the current environment.

Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on your home’s value, understanding these shifting trends is more important than ever.

And as always, here’s a summary of the stats for single family homes in Mecklenburg County in June compared to the previous month and again to the same month last year:

• Home sales are up 5% from last month and last year.
• Average sales price is up 4% from last month and 5% from last year.
• Median sales price is even from last month and down 1% from last year.
• Average price per square foot is up 2% from last month and last year.
• Sale to list price ratio at 99% is even with last month and last year.
• Average time on market is up 11% from last month and 43% from last year.
• Pending sales are down 13% from last month and up 2% from last year.
• Supply is up 5% from last month and 18% from last year.
• Mortgage rates at 6.55% are up from 6.48% last month and down from 6.75% last year.
• Average house payment is up 5% from last month and 3% from last year.

You can always find the detailed stats on our website here.